2022 NFL rookies make no initial cut for NFL MVP odds chart


We are now, finally, in the phase of the NFL offseason where the dust settles a bit. After a spring where we’ve seen no less than half a dozen franchise alter trades, franchise quarterbacks and marquee receivers, we can finally sit down and assess things, as teams head to the OTA. There are several ways to measure the impact experts expect from big moves, and one of those methods is to take a close look at the latest 2022 NFL Most Valuable Player odds.

These latest odds are just one way to decipher what just happened and what we expect from the fallout of trades, free agency signings and, yes, even impending suspensions (what’s up, Deshaun!). Actually, let’s start there, with Deshaun Watson. But first, hHere are the latest NFL MVP odds, courtesy of BetOnlineag:

Justin Herbert11/2
Josh Allen 6/1
Patrick Mahomes 9/1
Joe Terrier 1/11
Aaron Rodgers 14/1
Tom Brady 14/1
Russell Wilson 16/1
Deshaun Watson 18/1
Jalen hurts 18/1
Derek Carr 20/1
Matthew Stafford 20/1
Dak Prescott 25/1
Lamar Jackson 25/1
Kyler Murray 33/1
Matt Ryan 33/1
Trey Lance 33/1
Tua Tagovailoa 33/1
Kirk Cousins ​​40/1
Derrick Henry 50/1
McJones 50/1
Cooper Kupp 66/1
Jonathan Taylor 66/1
Fields Justin 66/1
Trevor Lawrence 66/1
Baker Mayfield 100/1
Carson Wentz 100/1
Christian McAffrey 100/1
Davante Adams 100/1
Deebo Samuel 100/1
Zach Wilson 100/1
Alvin Kamara 150/1
Ja’Marr Chase 150/1
James Winston 150/1
Jimmy Garoppolo 150/1
Ryan Tannehill 150/1
TJ Watt 150/1
Dalvin Cook 200/1
Austin Ekeler 250/1
Myles Garret 250/1
Nick Chubb 250/1

OK, let’s get to the scenarios, starting with Watson:

Watson’s MVP odds have fallen to 18/1 since March 14
On March 14, a grand jury having recently decided that he would not prosecute Watson criminally for the various sexual misconduct charges of numerous massage therapists, Watson’s odds went from 40/1 to 10/1, without even knowing in what team it would be. traded to. Since then, the smoke seems to indicate that there will be some sort of impending suspension for Watson, as the league completes its investigation. Bettors seem to think the suspension will be enough to affect his MVP ratings, but removes him from the draw entirely. I think nothing more than a two or three game suspension, and Watson would pretty much be mathematically eliminated from MVP consideration, as if the charges alone against him already don’t account for the fact that the writers don’t not vote for Watson for MVP for at least the coming season.

Justin Herbert is the favorite, and it’s playing in a trend
I’ve emphasized this point many times — the lowest value on the NFL MVP odds charts is usually with an ascending second- or third-year quarterback. In recent years, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have won the award in their second seasons in the league, and Carson Wentz and Josh Allen have both had strong runs for the award in recent seasons. This season, it looks like Herbert is the classy pick, but he’s anything but value for money as the overall favorite on the board. I like Joe Burrow at 11/1 more than Herbert at 11/2. If we take a flyer, Trey Lance in his first year as a starter in San Francisco at 33/1 might be worth watching.

No 2022 rookie made this odds table
Unlike the 2021 rookie class, where all five quarterbacks selected in the first round are somewhere on the odds board in 2022, and most of them were at least long shots on the board in 2021, the this season’s rookie class is excluded. , in mid-May, on MVP ratings. The only quarterback who could have been sniffed like a longshot would have been Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, the only quarterback drafted in the first round, but this chart is an accurate representation of this year’s rookie class reputation—- meat and potatoes, with strength along the offensive line and defense, not exactly tagged positions for the league’s highest honor.

Other notable odds moves
Here are some other odds variations that clearly define the directions of the storyline, along with the ratings from March 14 and the ratings from the table above:

* AARON RODGERS, from 01/12 to 01/14
When your team trades your top receiver and there’s no plan B, your MVP chances suffer, even if you’ve won the last two MVP awards.

* DEREK CARR, from 1/33 to 1/20
Conversely, when you are the recipient of said receiver, it’s a good thing for a QB

* MATT RYAN, from 100/1 to 33/1
When you’re traded from one of the league’s worst teams to a Super Bowl dark horse, good things happen

*TUA TAGOVAILOA. from 200/1 to 33/1
The combination of a new head coach and the acquisition of Tyreek Hill has people optimistic about Tua

* ZACH WILSON, from Off The Board at 100/1
The Jets had one of the best drafts in football, acquiring a future starting wide receiver, running back and tight end. Now they need their starting quarterback to turn it on

Listen to Sean Pendergast on SportsRadio 610 from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. weekdays. Also follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/SeanTPendergast and like him on Facebook at facebook.com/SeanTPendergast.

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